Thies Lindenthal

Thies Lindenthal

Research and teaching, mostly real estate finance, a bit of Big Data, ML, domain names, and a careful dose of proptech. University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy.

less than 1 minute read

“Oft ist die Rede von einem unerklärlich guten Rendite-Risiko-Verhältnis bei Immobilienanlagen. Eine neue Studie hat dies anhand historischer Immobiliendaten untersucht und zeigt: Das viel gepriesene Renditewunder gibt es nicht.”

Deutsch

“Les discussions sur les placements dans la pierre font souvent état d’un rapport rendement-risque étrangement avantageux. Une étude fondée sur des données historiques de l’immobilier démontre que ce rendement miracle n’existe pas.”

Francais

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Working Paper: Enhancing Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Return Forecasts via Machine Learning

5 minute read

We add to the emerging literature on machine learning empirical asset pricing by analyzing a comprehensive set of return prediction factors on REITs. We show that machine learning models are superior to traditional ordinary least square models and we find that REIT investors experience significant economic gains when using machine learning forecasts. Comparing to the stock market, we show that REITs are more predictable than stocks, and that the higher predictability is stable across time and across industry types.

The MPhils were back in town!

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It was such a joy to welcome back our MPhil alumni and former colleagues for the 2024 MPhil reunion! I truly enjoyed the evening, hearing all about your impressive careers—but, more importantly, seeing old friendships glowing strong and new bonds forming.Sometimes, the beauty of working in education gets lost in the daily grind. Being there with you wonderful people, I felt grateful, sentimental, and curious about your next steps. Thanks to all for the reunion, and I hope to see you again soon!

Continuous learning

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As I sat in the dentist’s chair, waiting for the local anesthetic to kick in, I finally asked the dentist something I had wondered about a few times before: “How do you keep up with new techniques and stay on top of your field?” I inquired, half-expecting a mention of professional courses or medical journals. His response was immediate and enthusiastic: “YouTube!” And that was reassuring.

Blog post: Predictable REIT returns

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The Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF) has published a blog post on Kahshin Leow’s and my research on predictable REIT returns: https://www.cerf.cam.ac.uk/blog/blog-2024